Trial reportPloS one2026
CACE closed: A multiverse examination of the influence of implementation variability on student outcomes in a randomised controlled trial of a universal, school-based social-emotional learning intervention.
Trial report in PloS one, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
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Abstract
introductionAmidst calls for more high-quality research to assess the influence of implementation variability on student outcomes in school-based trials using instrumental variable approaches (e.g., complier average causal effect; CACE), unreported researcher degrees of freedom can limit replicability and lead to uncertainty of conclusions. The current study aims to acknowledge and address these limitations using a multiverse framework. We investigate whether, and how, conclusions of a universal social-emotional learning intervention's efficacy are contingent on decisions about how compliance is defined and modelled.
methodsSecondary analysis of data from a cluster randomised control trial of the intervention Passport was undertaken, with schools (k = 62, N = 2,425 children) randomly allocated to intervention (k = 33; N = 1,264) or control (k = 29; N = 1,161) conditions. Ten theoretically plausible specifications for the CACE model were identified and pre-registered, including five definitions of compliance (fidelity, dosage, quality, responsiveness, reach) and two compliance thresholds (50th and 75th percentile). Student relational outcomes (bullying, peer support, loneliness) were assessed pre- and post-intervention.
resultsMultilevel intent-to-treat analysis revealed null intervention effects. Applying a multiverse framework to CACE revealed variation in model results, manifest in entropy values, the precision of confidence intervals and the direction, size and statistical significance of CACE effects. A statistically significant and negative CACE effect was found for peer support when compliance was defined by reach using the 75th percentile (β = -.38, 95% CI (-.68, -.08), E = .71, d = -.21), but non-statistically significant intervention effects were observed for the remaining CACE models.
conclusionsA multiverse framework enables transparent reporting of analytic uncertainty in evaluations of implementation variability in school-based trials, thereby offering theoretical, methodological and empirical advancements for implementation science. In doing so, it enables us to move from a fragmented view towards a more coherent understanding of complex interventions in real-world settings. PRE-REGISTRATION: www.osf.io/s5pmw.
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