ArticlePLOS global public health2026
The Epidemiology of colorectal cancer in Guangzhou, China: A cross-sectional and age-period-cohort study.
Article in PLOS global public health, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
To explore the epidemiological features and trends of colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality in Guangzhou, and offering scientific evidence for its prevention and control. Cross-sectional study with Joinpoint regression analysis was utilized to analyze CRC incidence and mortality trends. The age-period-cohort model was applied to evaluate the impacts of age, period, and birth cohort on CRC incidence and mortality. 36086 CRC cases and 15557 deaths were reported, 2011-2020. The age-standardized incidence rate increased from 23.20/100,000 in 2011 to 27.10/100,000 in 2020 (AAPC = 1.90%, 95% CI: 1.04% - 2.77%, P < 0.01), with significant rises in both the 0-49 age group and those aged 50 and above. The age-standardized mortality rate changed from 8.97/ 100,000 in 2011 to 9.55/100,000 in 2020, showing a stable, non - significant trend. The 5-year survival rate for CRC patients in Guangzhou was 46.27%. The APC model showed that CRC incidence and mortality generally increased with age. The period effect had an initial rise then a decline in risk, and CRC incidence risk increased with birth cohort while mortality risk first rose, peaked in the late 1950s, and then decreased. During 2011-2020, CRC incidence in Guangzhou showed an upward trend, while mortality was stable. Men had higher incidence and mortality than women. Rates were higher in those aged 50 and above, and there was a rising trend among those under 50. Promoting CRC prevention awareness, enhancing early diagnosis, and advocating healthy lifestyles are crucial.
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