ArticleiScience2026
A city-scale optimization framework for biomass-to-clean-energy transitions: The KAMPALA-TIMES model.
Article in iScience, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Rapid urbanization in Sub-Saharan African cities is accompanied by persistent reliance on traditional biomass for household energy, posing challenges for climate mitigation, public health, and sustainable development. This study develops the KAMPALA-TIMES model, a city-scale, bottom-up optimization framework that integrates localized energy data with IPCC AR6 SSP-RCP pathways to evaluate long-term energy transition strategies for Kampala, Uganda, from 2022 to 2060. Four scenarios (business-as-usual, enhanced biomass utilization, mixed renewable integration, and policy-driven carbon reduction) are assessed. Results show that efficiency improvements alone stabilize emissions but do not significantly reduce them, whereas electrification combined with renewable expansion substantially lowers system emissions. The policy-driven carbon reduction pathway achieves the deepest mitigation, reducing emissions to approximately 3.4 MtCO
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