ReviewDiabetes, metabolic syndrome and obesity : targets and therapy2026
Relation Between Obesity, Normal-Weight Obesity, and Risk of Diabetes Among Youth and Females - A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.
Review in Diabetes, metabolic syndrome and obesity : targets and therapy, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Background: Obesity is a significant modifiable risk factor for the development of diabetes. While this relationship is well established, the strength of association and its variation across age, sex, and body composition remains insufficiently understood. Objective: This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to assess the association between obesity, as measured by body mass index (BMI), and the risk of developing diabetes, with additional focus on subgroups by age, sex, and obesity phenotype, including normal-weight obesity (NWO). Methods: A Total of 1243 studies were screened using PRISMA guidelines and PICOS criteria across five major databases between 1994 and 2022. After rigorous screening, 10 studies comprising over 1.7 million participants met the inclusion criteria. Meta-analysis used a random-effects model to calculate pooled hazard ratios (HRs). Results: The pooled hazard ratio (HR) was 2.40 (95% CI: 2.07-2.79, I² = 77%, τ² = 0.0339, p < 0.01), indicating that obese individuals had more than twice the risk of developing diabetes compared with their nonobese counterparts. Subgroup analyses revealed that younger individuals (HR: 3.45, 95% CI: 2.90-4.10) and females (HR: 2.90, 95% CI: 2.35-3.55) presented greater diabetes risk than older individuals (HR: 2.95, 95% CI: 2.55-3.45) and males (HR: 2.60, 95% CI: 2.10-3.20). Normal weight obesity NWO was associated with an elevated risk in females (HR: 3.10, 95% CI: 1.37-7.01) but not males (HR: 1.16, 95% CI: 0.31-4.30). Conclusion: Obesity is strongly linked with an increased risk of diabetes, with significant effects in younger individuals, females, and those with high body fat despite an abnormal BMI. There is a need for comprehensive obesity assessments, including body composition analysis, in clinical practice and managing diabetes risk.
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