ArticleMalaria journal2026
Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on reported malaria incidence in children under five years of age in Cameroon: an interrupted time series analysis with regional heterogeneity (2017-2022).
Article in Malaria journal, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
0 citing papers in PubMed.
No citing paper in PubMed yet.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundMalaria remains a major cause of childhood morbidity and mortality in Cameroon. The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted access to healthcare and the continuity of malaria control programmes; however, its impact on reported incidence among children under 5 years of age, and its regional heterogeneity, remain insufficiently studied. We aimed to estimate the impact of the COVID-19-related interruption on reported malaria incidence among children under five years of age in Cameroon, nationally and by region, using routine DHIS2 surveillance data from 2017 to 2022.
methodsWe conducted an interrupted time series (ITS) study using monthly DHIS2 data from January 2017 to December 2022. Reported malaria incidence among children under 5 years of age was modelled using negative binomial regression (NB2) with a population offset. Two interruption points were defined a priori: March 2020 and January 2022. The model controlled for monthly fixed effects, long-lasting insecticidal net (LLIN) distribution activity, seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) activity, the paediatric consultation rate, and one-month lagged rainfall. Inference relied on Newey-West HAC-robust standard errors (lag = 12). Regional ITS models, counterfactual analysis, and sensitivity analyses complemented the primary analysis.
resultsIn March 2020, reported incidence showed an immediate 36.9% decline relative to the pre-pandemic trend (D1: IRR = 0.631; 95% CI 0.539-0.738; p < 0.001), followed by a positive slope change of 3.1% per month (P1: IRR = 1.031; 95% CI 1.017-1.045; p < 0.001). The second interruption point was not associated with any significant change in level or slope. The LLIN distribution indicator was inversely associated with reported incidence (IRR = 0.978; 95% CI 0.960-0.997; p = 0.024). Counterfactual analysis estimated a deficit of 69,708 notifications over 2020-2021, followed by an excess of 74,831 in 2022. Marked regional heterogeneity was observed, with particularly severe initial declines in the Centre (IRR = 0.467) and East (IRR = 0.544) regions.
conclusionsThe COVID-19 pandemic was associated with a substantial initial disruption in reported childhood malaria incidence in Cameroon, followed by a progressive recovery with marked territorial disparities. These findings support strengthening the continuity of malaria services during crises and maintaining high-quality surveillance systems to enable regionally tailored programmatic decision-making.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.