ArticleBMC infectious diseases2026
The 2025 measles outbreak in Texas.
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Risk and Spatial Spread of a Measles Outbreak in Texas.Viruses · 2026Article
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundIn 2025, Texas experienced its largest measles outbreak in decades, reporting 762 cases by mid-August. Measles is a highly contagious but vaccine-preventable infection transmitted mainly among unvaccinated individuals and capable of causing severe outcomes.
methodsWe investigate counterfactual measles control scenarios based on daycare and school closures and reactive vaccination of infants and children, including mixed interventions. We analyze the 2025 Texas outbreak using an age-structured multi-stage SEIR model formulated as a system of ordinary differential equations. The model is fit to case data using Bayesian inference to estimate the effective reproduction number and generate posterior predictive trajectories under alternative closure and vaccination scenarios.
resultsThe effective reproduction number [Formula: see text] was estimated to have a median of [Formula: see text] with a 95% high density interval (HDI) of 2.1-5.4. Posterior predictive trajectories have medians that closely match the observed data in different age groups. A combined vaccination campaign and short-term closures could reduce the cases by up to 21%. The combined daycare and school closure produced the greatest marginal benefit during the first 7 weeks, after which the additional benefit declined rapidly, which shows diminishing returns. Reactive vaccination campaigns also exhibited diminishing marginal returns, with the number of additional averted cases decreasing nonlinearly with each [Formula: see text] increase in vaccination rate, yielding small gains at higher vaccination levels.
conclusionsThe measles outbreak is probably due to decreased immunity levels in the affected counties. Implementing extended daycare and school closures, supplemented with a swift, reactive vaccination campaign, can be highly effective in containing the local measles outbreak.
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