ArticleCancer medicine2026
Bayesian Evaluation of Treatment Effect of Avelumab Plus Axitinib for Advanced Renal Cell Carcinoma.
Article in Cancer medicine, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
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Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
10 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundDespite not achieving statistical significance, the JAVELIN Renal 101 trial indicated a potentially clinically relevant effect size (hazard ratio [HR], 0.88; 95% confidence interval, 0.75 to 1.04) on overall survival (OS) favoring avelumab plus axitinib over sunitinib for advanced renal cell carcinoma (aRCC). To better interpret these findings, we performed a Bayesian evaluation.
methodsWe reanalyzed individual participant data from the JAVELIN Renal 101 trial using a Bayesian framework. Prior distributions were specified for varying levels of enthusiasm and skepticism for avelumab plus axitinib, and a prior from a meta-analysis of similar trials. The posterior probability of any OS benefit with avelumab plus axitinib, Pr(HR < 1.0), and of benefit exceeding the minimal clinically important difference (MCID; HR = 0.75), Pr(HR < MCID), were estimated using Bayesian Cox models. Bayesian hierarchical models evaluated treatment effect heterogeneity across International Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma Database Consortium risk groups and programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) status.
resultsRegardless of the prior assumptions used, Pr(HR < 1.0) was consistently high (93.0% to 95.5%). However, Pr(HR < MCID) was low (1.0% to 3.8%). Results were similar when the prior was informed by pooled data from similar trials. In subgroup analyses, Pr(HR < MCID) varied by risk group: 63.4% for poor-risk, 34.9% for favorable-risk, and 0.9% for intermediate-risk aRCC. This probability was low regardless of PD-L1 status.
conclusionsThis exploratory Bayesian reanalysis complements the interpretation of the JAVELIN Renal 101 trial and offers a probabilistic perspective beyond a dichotomous (i.e., significant/nonsignificant) interpretation.
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