Dialogue, inclusion, and adaptation in a remote marine sanctuary: evidence from Flower Garden Banks.

Interdisciplinary, stakeholder-engaged research is increasingly being used for managing climate change in social-ecological systems. We apply a Collaborative Adaptive Experimental Governance lens to the Flower Garden Banks National Marine Sanctuary, a remote, relatively pristine coral reef system ~130-190 km offshore in the Gulf of Mexico, where biodiversity protection coexists with recreation and offshore energy. We coupled participatory social science with climate and ecosystem modeling to inform dialogue with decision-makers and users. First, we generated scenarios using Community Earth System Model2-LE ocean temperature and aragonite saturation state to characterize warming and acidification; translated heat stress into a variability-based coral bleaching index; and projected demersal and pelagic fish biomass. We then conducted 37 semi-structured interviews (managers, oil and gas, commercial and recreational fisheries, dive operators, Non-governmental organizations, and science/education), employed multi-coder reliability, and triangulated findings with policy and legal documents. Results highlight the centrality of the Sanctuary Advisory Council in structuring inclusive dialogue, co-producing recommendations, and supporting outreach in distant coastal communities. Multi-level coordination among NOAA, the Gulf of Mexico Fishery Management Council, and the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management enabled boundary expansion and reconciled conservation with industry and fishing interests. Key barriers to adaptive responses include offshore remoteness and logistics, limited public awareness, funding constraints, trust deficits, and procedural delays; pressures that intersect with warming, acidification, and episodic hypoxia. Our study shows that remote marine protected areas can operationalize inclusive, experimental governance to align science and management, but sustained investment in monitoring, restoration capacity, boundary-spanning outreach, and cross-agency coordination is needed.