ArticleFrontiers in oncology2026
Disease burden of cervical cancer in China from 1990 to 2023 and prediction of future trends.
Article in Frontiers in oncology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Burden trends and disparities of metabolic risk-attributable peripheral arterial disease in China (1990-2035): a comparative analysis with G20 countries.International journal of public health · 2026Article
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5 authors.
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Abstract
Objective: To analyze the temporal trend of the disease burden of cervical cancer in China from 1990 to 2023 and to forecast incidence and mortality trends from 2024 to 2038, thereby providing data support and a scientific foundation for optimizing cervical cancer prevention and control strategies in China. Methods: Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 database were used to extract incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) related to cervical cancer in China. Age-standardized rates (ASRs) were applied for comparative analysis. Temporal trends were evaluated using Joinpoint regression, and an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was employed to project the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized death rate (ASDR) from 2024 to 2038. Results: Between 1990 and 2023, absolute numbers of prevalent cases, deaths, and new cases increased, whereas all age-standardized rates declined. ASDR decreased by 52.5%, and the age-standardized DALYs rate decreased by 54.9%. The disease burden was concentrated in women aged ≥55 years. Joinpoint regression showed an overall decline in ASIR (AAPC = -1.02%), with rebounds during 2013-2017 and 2020-2023. ARIMA projections indicate that ASIR will gradually decline from 11.14 per 100,000 in 2024 to 8.70 per 100,000 in 2038, a cumulative reduction of 21.9%, while ASDR will drop sharply from 3.70 per 100,000 to 0.48 per 100,000, a cumulative reduction of 87.0%. Conclusion: The diverging trends between declining age-standardized rates and rising absolute numbers indicate a critical transition in China's cervical cancer control efforts. While mortality reduction has been substantial, the growing patient population-particularly among older women-demands a strategic shift toward integrated prevention. Future efforts should expand HPV vaccination coverage, optimize screening for under-screened populations, and strengthen health system capacity to manage the increasing absolute burden. These findings provide an evidence-based foundation for advancing China's cervical cancer elimination strategy.
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