Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42205456›Full record

ArticleFrontiers in public health2026

Epidemiological trends and spatiotemporal distribution of syphilis in Nagasaki Prefecture, Japan, 2014-2023.

Binghua Tu, Guoxi Cai, Yixiao Lu, Quwen Li, Kiyoshi Aoyagi, Kazuhiko Arima, Satoshi Mizukami, Hiromu Ito, Hiroaki Arima, Maiko Hasegawa and 6 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Frontiers in public health, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

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Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

16 authors.

Binghua Tu *Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, Fujian, China.
Guoxi Cai *Department of Public Health and Hygiene Research, Nagasaki Prefectural Institute of Environment and Public Health, Nagasaki, Japan.
Yixiao LuYunnan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Yunnan Academy of Preventive Medicine, Kunming, Yunnan, China.
Quwen LiFujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Fuzhou, Fujian, China.
Kiyoshi AoyagiDepartment of Public Health, Nagasaki University Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, Nagasaki, Japan.
Kazuhiko ArimaDepartment of Public Health, Nagasaki University Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, Nagasaki, Japan.
Satoshi MizukamiDepartment of Public Health, Nagasaki University Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, Nagasaki, Japan.
Hiromu ItoDepartment of International Health and Medical Anthropology, Institute of Tropical Medicine (NEKKEN), Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan.
Hiroaki ArimaDepartment of International Health and Medical Anthropology, Institute of Tropical Medicine (NEKKEN), Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan.
Maiko HasegawaCommunity Health Promotion Division, Health &; Welfare Department, Nagasaki Prefectural Government, Nagasaki, Japan.
Rieko NakaoDepartment of Public Health Nursing, Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan.
Masaya M SaitoDepartment of Information Security, Faculty of Information Systems, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan.
Shouhei TakeuchiDepartment of Nutrition Science, Faculty of Nursing and Nutrition, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan.
Kouichi MoritaDepartment of Virology, Institute of Tropical Medicine (NEKKEN), Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan.
Jianfeng XieFujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Fuzhou, Fujian, China.
Fei HeDepartment of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, Fujian, China.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Introduction: Syphilis incidence has increased sharply in high-income countries since 2012, including Japan. Nagasaki Prefecture has not previously been subject to detailed epidemiological analysis of syphilis. This study aimed to characterize the epidemiological trends, demographic characteristics, and spatiotemporal distribution of syphilis in Nagasaki Prefecture from 2014 to 2023. Methods: A descriptive epidemiological study was conducted using 10-year infectious disease surveillance data from Nagasaki Prefecture. Cases were analyzed by time, person, and place distribution. Joinpoint regression analysis was performed to identify significant changes in incidence trends and calculate the annual percentage change (APC). Compound annual growth rates (CAGR) were calculated for overall and stage-specific incidence. Results: A total of 423 syphilis cases were reported, with the overall incidence rate increasing from 1.26 per 100,000 in 2014 to 11.81 per 100,000 in 2023, representing a 9.4-fold increase with a CAGR of 28.1%. Joinpoint regression identified 2021 as a significant inflection point, with the APC accelerating from 11.83% during 2014-2021 to 99.69% during 2021-2023. Young adults aged 18-34 years showed the most pronounced increase (from seven cases in 2014 to 75 cases in 2023, a 10.7-fold increase). Among cases with documented exposure history, 42.1% (82/195) reported sex industry involvement. Cases were geographically concentrated in Nagasaki City, Sasebo, Isahaya, and Omura. Conclusion: These findings highlight the disproportionate burden among young adults and the substantial role of sex industry exposure. Targeted screening, integrated HIV-syphilis testing, and strengthened urban surveillance should be prioritized.

Indexed as

SyphilisAdolescentAdultAgedChildFemaleHumansIncidenceJapanMaleMiddle AgedSpatio-Temporal AnalysisYoung AdultCOVID - 19epidemiological trendincidenceJapanSyphilis

Identifiers

PMID42205456
PMCPMC13202782

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.