Population health outcomes in Qatar 1990-2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023.

Background: Patterns of health and disease in Qatar have shifted substantially over the past three decades, reflecting demographic expansion, economic transition, and significant improvements in health system capacity. A comprehensive, up-to-date evaluation of disease burden is essential to guide priority-setting, resource allocation, and national health planning. However, no prior study has systematically assessed long-term trends in morbidity, mortality, and risk factors in Qatar using the most recent epidemiological data consistent with the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study framework. This study addresses this gap by providing a detailed analysis of population health outcomes in Qatar from 1990 to 2023. Methods: We conducted a secondary analysis of publicly available Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 modelled estimates of mortality, prevalence, incidence, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), and risk factor-attributable disease burden in Qatar. Data sources included vital registration records, hospital and registry datasets, survey data, and modelled estimates, as appropriate. Changes were examined across three major cause categories: non-communicable diseases (NCDs), communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases, and injuries-over four analytic periods (1990-2000, 2000-2015, 2015-2023, and 1990-2023). Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were derived from 250 posterior draws. The study followed GBD guidelines for reporting and estimation transparency. Findings: Qatar has achieved substantial progress in reducing the burden of CMNN diseases since 1990, driven by expanded immunisation coverage, improved maternal and neonatal care, and strengthened primary health services. However, the burden of NCDs has risen markedly and now accounts for the majority of mortality and DALYs. The leading contributors to NCD burden in 2023 were ischaemic heart disease, diabetes mellitus, cancer, chronic kidney disease, and neurological disorders. High body-mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, hypertension, dietary risks, and tobacco use were the predominant metabolic and behavioural risk factors. Road traffic injuries remained a leading cause of premature mortality, particularly among young men, reflecting Qatar's predominantly male working-age expatriate population and high rates of occupational and vehicular mobility. COVID-19 temporarily reversed declines in infectious disease burden during 2020-2021, although trends returned to levels consistent with the 2018 pre-pandemic trajectory by 2023. Interpretation: The epidemiological profile of Qatar is characterised by declining infectious disease burden and rising chronic disease and injury burden, shaped by demographic composition and lifestyle transitions. Addressing the growing impact of NCDs and injuries will require sustained preventive strategies, population-level risk factor reduction, strengthened primary care for chronic disease management, and coordinated multisectoral policy responses targeting diet, physical activity, road safety, and occupational health. These findings provide an evidence base to support national health planning and ongoing progress toward equitable and sustainable population health in Qatar. Funding: The publication of this study was funded by the Medical Research Center (MRC)at Hamad Medical Corporation (HMC), Doha, Qatar.