ArticleBMJ open2026
Risk factors for recurrent falls in midlife: a prospective cohort study using data from the Health and Employment After Fifty (HEAF) study.
Article in BMJ open, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundFalls, especially recurrent, cause significant morbidity. Research on falls generally focuses on older adults but patterns of falling may start earlier in life. This study aimed to quantify the prevalence of falls and recurrent falls among late middle-aged community-dwelling adults and identify the socio-demographic, lifestyle and health-related factors associated with recurrent falls.
methodsThe Health and Employment After Fifty (HEAF) study is a longitudinal cohort of men and women aged 50-64 years recruited in 2013-14 from across England. At baseline and each of five approximately annual follow-ups, participants reported falls in the preceding year. Participants were categorised as recurrent fallers if they experienced more than one fall on at least two occasions, non-fallers if they never reported a fall, or intermediate fallers otherwise. Multinomial logistic regression explored associations between fall category and potential risk factors, presented as relative risk ratios with 95%CI.
resultsAmong 8134 participants, 7051 were eligible for this analysis. The prevalence of any falls ranged from 14-18% across follow-ups. Overall, 437 (6%) were recurrent fallers, 2738 (39%) intermediate and 3876 (55%) non-fallers. Independent predictors of recurrent falls included female gender, unpartnered, unemployed or retired and lack of home ownership. Health-related factors included obesity, fair/poor self-rated health, depression, poor sleep, slow walking speed and memory problems. The final model correctly classified 60% of participants.
conclusionsRecurrent falls in mid-life were relatively common. Both socio-economic and health-related characteristics, alongside female gender, were identified as predictors, suggesting potential targets for early identification and risk mitigation in this age group.
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