An In-Hospital Mortality Risk Model for Patients Undergoing Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting Based on Machine Learning: Cohort Study.

backgroundIschemic heart disease remains the leading cause of death worldwide. Coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) remains the primary surgical treatment for ischemic heart disease. There is currently a lack of highly accurate and widely applicable models for assessing the risk of postoperative mortality following CABG.

objectiveThis study aimed to develop and validate an in-hospital mortality risk prediction system for patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) by using machine learning algorithms and to compare its performance with the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II (EuroSCORE II) and Sino System for Coronary Operative Risk Evaluation (SinoSCORE).

methodsBetween January 2017 and December 2020, 21,443 patients undergoing CABG in the Chinese Cardiac Surgery Registry were included. Patients were randomly divided into training (n=17,753) and test (n=3690) cohorts. We addressed class imbalance using the synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE) and optimized hyperparameters via grid search. Fifteen machine learning algorithms were developed to predict in-hospital mortality. Performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration metrics (Brier score), and decision curve analysis, and was compared against EuroSCORE II and SinoSCORE.

resultsA total of 21,443 patients were included. Overall, in-hospital mortality was 2.1% (n=450). The Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model achieved the best performance with an AUC of 0.850 in the training cohort and 0.782 in the independent test cohort (this cohort was independent and not involved in model construction). While EuroSCORE II showed an AUC of 0.722 and SinoSCORE showed an AUC of 0.726 in the test cohort, the XGBoost model demonstrated superior discrimination and calibration (P<.05).

conclusionsOur study developed and validated a machine learning-based risk prediction model for in-hospital mortality after CABG by using a large-scale Chinese multicenter registry. Among the algorithms tested, the XGBoost model demonstrated superior discrimination and calibration compared with the traditional EuroSCORE II and SinoSCORE, suggesting that locally calibrated models may better capture the risk profile of Chinese patients. The derived 7-variable web calculator may serve as an exploratory auxiliary tool to provide a preliminary reference for bedside risk stratification, though its direct impact on surgical decision-making requires further prospective validation. Future research should focus on independent test cohorts across diverse hospital tiers to ensure broad generalizability.