ArticlePediatric research2026
Development and validation of a nomogram for early prognostic prediction in childhood aplastic anemia receiving cyclosporine monotherapy.
Article in Pediatric research, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundThe prognosis for aplastic anemia (AA) patients undergoing cyclosporine is variable; therefore, a prognostic model is needed to optimize stratified treatment strategies.
methodsThis observational retrospective cohort study included patients with AA who received immunosuppressive therapy with cyclosporine. A total of 437 patients were randomly assigned to the training cohort (n = 262) or the validation cohort (n = 175) at a ratio of 6:4. Independent prognostic factors were identified through univariate regression and collinearity screening, and the Cox regression model was used to construct a nomogram for prognosis prediction. ROC curves, calibration curves and DCA curves were used to evaluate the discrimination, calibration performance and clinical practicality of the models.
resultsA nomogram for predicting overall survival was constructed using 13 identified independent predictors. ROC curve analysis revealed that the AUC values for both the training and validation sets exceeded or approach 0.80, indicating good model discrimination. The calibration curve showed a high degree of consistency between the model prediction results and the actual observed values, and DCA confirmed the model's relevance in clinical decision-making.
conclusionIn this study, a new nomogram model for predicting the prognosis of children with AA was developed, providing a tool to support doctors in predicting early-stage patient prognosis and developing reasonable treatment plans. IMPACT STATEMENT: Cyclosporine is the cornerstone drug for immunosuppressive therapy in acquired aplastic anemia. Pediatric patients with acquired aplastic anemia exhibit variable outcomes following single-agent cyclosporine therapy. This study developed a prognostic prediction model for childhood aplastic anemia patients treated with cyclosporine monotherapy, providing a basis for the stratified management of aplastic anemia, with strong clinical applicability. This nomogram model has not been reported in studies on early prognosis prediction of childhood aplastic anemia.
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