Impact of tariff on Indian AYUSH products: Evidence from top importers of India.

Background The global demand for Indian AYUSH (Ayurveda, Yoga & Naturopathy, Unani, Siddha, and Homeopathy) products has been rising, yet the impact of tariff reduction on their trade remains largely unexplored. Objective This study aims to assess the effects of tariff reduction on AYUSH product exports to eight major importing countries, which collectively account for approximately 50% of India's AYUSH exports. Methods The analysis covers 19 eight-digit HS codes specified by AYUSHEXCIL, which include traditional AYUSH products along with related cosmetic and dental preparations that contain herbal and traditional medicine ingredients, as dedicated six-digit HS codes for pure AYUSH products are not available in the international trade classification system. Using secondary trade data, the research employs a Partial Equilibrium Analysis through the Trade Intelligence and Negotiation Advisor (TINA) model to simulate trade scenarios under reduced tariff conditions. Results The findings indicate that while tariff reductions generally enhance trade, a blanket zero-tariff policy across all AYUSH products is not advisable. In certain product categories, trade diversion outweighs trade creation, leading to potential welfare losses for India. Conclusion The study provides critical insights for policymakers, suggesting a selective tariff reduction strategy that maximizes trade benefits while safeguarding national economic interests.The findings underscore the importance of integrating product-specific competitiveness, regulatory harmonization, and upstream value chain considerations into India's AYUSH export strategy.