Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42171656›Full record

ArticleCancer research2026

Evolutionary Antifragile Therapy Is a Treatment Strategy to Suppress Drug Resistance by Exploiting Dose-Response Convexity.

Jeffrey West, Bina Desai, Maximilian A R Strobl, Jill Gallaher, Mark Robertson-Tessi, Andriy Marusyk, Alexander R A Anderson

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Cancer research, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
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1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Jeffrey WestIntegrated Mathematical Oncology Department, H. Lee Moffitt Cancer Center and Research Institute, Tampa, Florida.ORCID 0000-0001-9579-4664
Bina DesaiDepartment of Metabolism and Physiology, H. Lee Moffitt Cancer Center and Research Institute, Tampa, Florida.ORCID 0000-0003-0454-7583
Maximilian A R StroblI-X Centre for AI in Science, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0003-4484-8823
Jill GallaherIntegrated Mathematical Oncology Department, H. Lee Moffitt Cancer Center and Research Institute, Tampa, Florida.ORCID 0000-0001-9831-6676
Mark Robertson-TessiIntegrated Mathematical Oncology Department, H. Lee Moffitt Cancer Center and Research Institute, Tampa, Florida.ORCID 0000-0003-0143-9587
Andriy MarusykDepartment of Metabolism and Physiology, H. Lee Moffitt Cancer Center and Research Institute, Tampa, Florida.ORCID 0000-0002-0087-9575
Alexander R A AndersonIntegrated Mathematical Oncology Department, H. Lee Moffitt Cancer Center and Research Institute, Tampa, Florida.ORCID 0000-0002-2536-4383

Funding

"Research Supplement to Promote Diversity in Health-Related Research", as part of Moffitt PS-OC, "Cancer as a Complex adaptive System"U54CA193489 · NCI · H. LEE MOFFITT CANCER CTR & RES INST · PI ANDERSON, ALEXANDER ROBERTSON ALLAN, GATENBY, ROBERT A · 2015 to 2020
$12.5M
The Delta Ecology of NSCLC TreatmentU54CA274507 · NCI · H. LEE MOFFITT CANCER CTR & RES INST · PI Alexander Robertson Allan Anderson, ROBERT A GATENBY · 2023 to 2026
$9.4M
Eco-Evolutionary dynamics of NSCLC to immunotherapy: Response and ResistanceU01CA232382 · NCI · H. LEE MOFFITT CANCER CTR & RES INST · PI ANDERSON, ALEXANDER ROBERTSON ALLAN, ANTONIA, SCOTT J. · 2018 to 2022
$3.3M
National Cancer Institute (NCI) U01CA232382National Cancer Institute (NCI) U54CA193489National Cancer Institute (NCI) U54CA274507NCI NIH HHS U01 CA232382NCI NIH HHS U54 CA193489NCI NIH HHS U54 CA274507
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

A population of cells within a tumor can be described as antifragile (the opposite of fragile) if they derive a benefit from fluctuations or perturbations in environmental conditions induced by treatment. Treatment fluctuations could either promote (antifragile tumor) or inhibit (fragile tumor) the evolution of treatment resistance to targeted therapies. In this study, we showed that analysis of the convexity of dose-response curves provided a direct prediction of response to prescribed fluctuations in treatment. Convexity predicted that continuous treatment protocols (i.e., zero prescribed fluctuations in treatment) would outperform uneven protocols when dose response is convex. This theory was applied to predict in vivo response to targeted therapy, and the predictions were validated by experimentally testing high/low intermittent dosing (uneven dosing) and continuous dosing (even dosing) schedules. Convexity (and its inverse, concavity) explained 2 phenomena: Dose response is a convex (fragile) function, but the resistance onset rate is a concave (antifragile) function. Thus, design and validation of alternative treatment schedules maximized response while maintaining prolonged sensitivity to treatment. Together, these analyses provide supporting evidence that fluctuations alter the evolutionary trajectory of tumors in response to targeted therapy, even without altering the cumulative dose. By using this insight to design alternative treatment protocols to limit the evolution of resistance by careful analysis of the dose-response curvature, the study supports the potential of "evolutionary antifragile therapy" as a subtype in the broad class of evolution-based treatment strategies. SIGNIFICANCE: The mathematical method using dose response curvature to determine appropriate treatment dosing that limits the evolution of resistance could facilitate designing dose schedules that optimize tumor response. See related commentary by Pomeroy and Palmer, p. 4195.

Indexed as

Antineoplastic AgentsDrug Resistance, NeoplasmNeoplasmsAnimalsDose-Response Relationship, DrugHumansModels, BiologicalAntineoplastic Agents

Identifiers

PMID42171656
PMCPMC13283037

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.