ArticlePest management science2026
Mapping the global threat of Mythimna separata (Walker) and its economic implications for Brazil's agriculture.
Article in Pest management science, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
0 citing papers in PubMed.
No citing paper in PubMed yet.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundIdentifying high-risk areas for the introduction of invasive alien species is particularly important for agricultural pests with a broad host range that attack widely cultivated crops, such as the oriental armyworm, Mythimna separata (Walker, 1865) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae). This study aimed to assess the global climatic suitability for M. separata and evaluate the economic risk for maize, rice, sorghum, sugarcane, and wheat cultivation in Brazil in the event of invasion and spread to suitable areas. Climatic suitability was estimated using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm, and the Normalized Concentration Index (nCI) was calculated to assess the concentration of crop production across Brazilian municipalities.
resultsThe selected model showed strong discriminatory power, with Area Under the Curve and Continuous Boyce Index values above 0.85. Moderately to highly suitable areas were identified beyond the species' native range, including North, Central and South America, Europe, southeastern Australia, and New Zealand. Globally, 35.0%, 39.0%, and 46.9% of areas cultivated with rice, maize, and wheat, respectively, fall within regions classified as moderately to highly suitable. In Brazil, estimated economic risk varied substantially among crops, with wheat showing the greatest vulnerability.
conclusionIntegrating regional crop production data with invasion risk maps proved useful in identifying priority areas for preventive actions, supporting the targeting of surveillance and management efforts to mitigate potential economic losses. © 2026 The Author(s). Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.