ArticleBMC geriatrics2026
Development and internal validation of a nomogram for predicting 30-day mortality in older patients with hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis.
Article in BMC geriatrics, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
objectiveTo develop and validate a prognostic model for predicting 30-day mortality in older patients with hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (HLH).
methodsThis retrospective cohort study enrolled 204 HLH patients aged ≥ 65 years from January 2015 to November 2023. We divided the cohort into development and validation cohorts in a 7:3 ratio. Then we used logistic regression analysis and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression (LASSO) to develop a prognostic model. Performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis (DCA).
resultsThe 30-day mortality rate was 40.7%. Multivariate analysis identified five risk factors independently associated with 30-day mortality of older patients with HLH: Age, platelet (PLT), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), UREA, and ferritin. The model has good discrimination and calibration ability (AUC: 0.828 (0.755-0.886) for the development cohort and 0.773 (0.654-0.891) for the validation cohort). The model showed excellent calibration and clinical utility. Kaplan-Meier survival curve analysis showed that patients with the nomogram value > 0.3851 were positively correlated with higher 30-day mortality (P < 0.001).
conclusionThe model incorporating age and four routine clinical parameters accurately stratifies 30-day mortality risk in older HLH patients demonstrating strong discriminative ability and clinical applicability, thereby providing a basis for clinical decision-making.
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