ArticleBMJ paediatrics open2026
Global and regional insights: unravelling the epidemiological factors and burden of autism spectrum disorders with a focus on China from 1990 to 2021.
Article in BMJ paediatrics open, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
0 citing papers in PubMed.
No citing paper in PubMed yet.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
11 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivesTo assess the trends of autism spectrum disorders (ASD) in China and globally, to extract the epidemiological characteristics and to predict the burden in 2030. Data on the prevalence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for ASD from 1990 to 2021 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database.
methodsThe Join-point regression model was used to analyse changes in the disease burden of ASD over time, and the Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was employed to predict the trend by 2030.
resultsFrom 1990 to 2021, the age-standardised prevalence and age-standardised DALYs rate of ASD in China were lower than the global average level. However, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in these rates was 0.22% for prevalence and 0.23% for DALYs, which were higher than the global average levels. It is forecasted that the disease burden of ASD in China showed an uptrend by 2030, corresponding to the age-standardised prevalence of 660.28 per 100 000 and age-standardised DALYs rate of 126.66 per 100 000. In comparison, the global levels are 793.01 per 100 000 and 147.43 per 100 000 by 2030, respectively.
conclusionsOur findings demonstrate a strong positive correlation between the age-standardised prevalence and DALYs rate of ASD and sociodemographic index (SDI) across most countries. The health impact of ASD has been on an upward trajectory over the past three decades. ASD significantly contributes to health loss, particularly among preschool boys. The disease burden of ASD in China is likely to increase progressively in the future, highlighting the urgency of implementing targeted prevention and control measures.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.