ArticleBMC public health2026
Alcohol-related fatal-and-injury traffic crashes in Türkiye (2015-2024): temporal trends and an ecological evaluation of alcohol control policies.
Article in BMC public health, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundAlcohol-impaired driving is a well-established and preventable cause of road traffic deaths and injuries. This study examined national time trends in the relative burden of alcohol-related fatal-and-injury road traffic crashes in Türkiye between 2015 and 2024 and interpreted the findings within an ecological policy and enforcement context.
methodsWe conducted a national ecological time-trend analysis using annual aggregate road traffic crash statistics from the Turkish Statistical Institute for 2015-2024. The outcome was the annual count of alcohol-related crashes resulting in death or injury. To estimate changes in the relative burden over time, the natural logarithm of the annual total number of fatal-and-injury crashes was included as an offset. Temporal trends were first assessed using Poisson regression; after overdispersion was identified, estimates were re-evaluated using negative binomial regression. Results are reported as incidence rate ratios (IRR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI).
resultsThe proportion of alcohol-related fatal-and-injury crashes among all fatal-and-injury crashes declined from 2.13% in 2015 to 0.72% in 2024. In the Poisson model, calendar year was negatively associated with the relative burden (IRR 0.883; 95% CI 0.880-0.887; p < 0.001), although model fit indicated overdispersion. In the negative binomial model, the direction of the association remained negative but was not statistically significant (IRR 0.883; 95% CI 0.709-1.097; p = 0.260). Sensitivity analyses excluding 2020 alone and excluding both 2019 and 2020 yielded nearly identical estimates, indicating that the negative but non-significant trend was not materially driven by potentially atypical pandemic-period observations.
conclusionsDescriptive data showed a marked decline in the relative burden of alcohol-related fatal-and-injury road traffic crashes in Türkiye from 2015 to 2024. However, negative binomial regression did not confirm a statistically significant temporal trend, indicating that model-based evidence should be interpreted cautiously. Interpretation should consider the ecological nature of the data and the possibility of time-varying enforcement intensity, detection, and reporting practices.
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