Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42162298›Full record

ReviewNature medicine2026

Climate change and infectious diseases.

Rachel E Baker, Aleksandra R Stamper, Holly A Burrows, Oliver G Spacey, Maya V Chung, Benjamin L Rice, Wenchang Yang, Caroline E Wagner, C Jessica E Metcalf

Abstract readReview
PubMed Publisher
In one paragraph

Review in Nature medicine, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Rachel E BakerDepartment of Epidemiology, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA. rachel_e_baker@brown.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2661-8103
Aleksandra R StamperDepartment of Epidemiology, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0005-6202-3755
Holly A BurrowsDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
Oliver G SpaceyDepartment of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Maya V ChungProgram in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0097-5652
Benjamin L RiceDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4844-0323
Wenchang YangDepartment of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0053-9527
Caroline E WagnerDepartment of Bioengineering, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada.
C Jessica E MetcalfDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3166-7521

Funding

Burroughs Wellcome Fund (BWF) 1181130Government of Canada (Gouvernement du Canada) NFRFE-2023-00359
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Climate change will alter the distribution and burden of infectious diseases. Anticipating future impacts requires characterizing how climate drivers alter transmission of vector-borne, waterborne and respiratory pathogens, accounting for nonlinear relationships between climate variables and disease outcomes. Here we show how inference from laboratory and observational studies in the present can be used to develop projections for the future impact of climate change on infectious disease, and to understand how climate change to date may have impacted existing disease trajectories. We synthesize data from multiple pathogens to show the broad implications of climate change for spatial and temporal outbreak patterns and predictability. One of the most immediate consequences of climate change may be to exacerbate the impact of weather extremes and climate variability, requiring novel data streams and modeling tools to tune interventions. At the same time, climate change is set to occur against the backdrop of demographic change; therefore, determining global shifts in vulnerability, both in the present and the future, is an important task for public health.

Indexed as

Climate ChangeCommunicable DiseasesCost of IllnessDisease OutbreaksHumansPopulation Density

Identifiers

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.