ArticleTranslational pediatrics2026
Epidemiological burden of pertussis in children in Asia: a review of 1990-2021 data and future projections.
Article in Translational pediatrics, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Background: Pertussis, an acute respiratory infectious disease caused by Methods: Data were sourced from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, covering pertussis incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) among children aged 0-14 years across Asian countries. Descriptive statistical methods were used to analyze trends in disease burden, and correlation analysis was conducted to assess the relationship between the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) and disease burden. The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was utilized to predict future trends of pertussis in countries including China, India, Japan, and South Korea. Results: In 2021, there were 2.527 million new cases of pertussis among children aged 0-14 years in Asia, with an incidence rate of 231.9 per 100,000; 15,000 deaths, with a mortality rate of 1.37 per 100,000; and 1.322 million DALYs, with a DALY rate of 33.3 per 100,000. From 1990 to 2021, the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was -3.43, -4.64, and -11.96, respectively. The highest burden was observed in South Asia, while the high-income Asia-Pacific regions had the lowest burden. A significant negative correlation was found between SDI and disease burden (r range: -0.44 to -0.95). Projections indicate that by 2050, the burden of pertussis in China, India, Japan, and South Korea will continue to decrease. Conclusions: Over the past three decades, the burden of pediatric pertussis in Asia has significantly declined; however, regional disparities remain, with South Asia still bearing the highest burden. The level of socio-demographic development is significantly negatively correlated with the pertussis burden. Furthermore, the BAPC model predicts a continued decline in the disease burden in the coming decades, highlighting the need to maintain public health interventions.
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