Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42158657›Full record

ArticleTranslational pediatrics2026

A simplified prediction model for in-hospital mortality in children with congenital heart disease after surgery.

Yi Hong, Chenyang You, Yanjun Che, Meihua Lu, Huaqing Liu

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Article in Translational pediatrics, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Yi HongDepartment of Pediatrics, Changshu Hospital Affiliated to Nanjing University of Chinese Medicine, Changshu, China.
Chenyang YouSchool of Medical Imaging, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China.
Yanjun CheOrthopedics and Sports Medicine Center, The Affiliated Suzhou Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Suzhou, China.
Meihua LuDepartment of Pediatrics, Changshu Hospital Affiliated to Nanjing University of Chinese Medicine, Changshu, China.
Huaqing LiuHealth Supervision Institute of Gusu District, Suzhou, China.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: Early identification of high-risk patients is critical for improving outcomes after congenital heart disease (CHD) surgery in children. This study aimed to establish a prediction model for in-hospital mortality after surgery in children with CHD based on early postoperative indicators obtained upon Pediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU) admission. Methods: Children diagnosed with CHD who underwent cardiac repair surgery between 2010 and 2018 were screened from the Pediatric Intensive Care (PIC) database, and clinical data were extracted. Laboratory variables were derived from the first measurements taken immediately after surgery upon admission to the PICU. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to screen risk factors for postoperative death in CHD children. A simple risk scoring system was developed using the factor scoring method, and the model performance was evaluated. Results: A total of 1,982 children admitted to the PIC unit during the postoperative period were included. Seven predictors were identified: gender, age, hemoglobin, mean corpuscular volume, albumin, calcium, and pH. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the multivariate logistic model constructed with these seven factors was 0.895 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.818-0.973]. The simplified scoring system derived from the aforementioned factors yielded an AUC of 0.889 (95% CI: 0.813-0.966). At a cutoff value of 5, the sensitivity and specificity were 0.800 and 0.893, respectively. Compared with the low-risk (<5) children, the odds ratios of in-hospital mortality in the moderate-risk [5-10] and high-risk (≥10) children were 12.52 (95% CI: 3.55-44.12) and 179.50 (95% CI: 45.73-704.63), respectively. Conclusions: Based on seven commonly available postoperative clinical indicators, this study successfully established a simple scoring system with good predictive performance for in-hospital mortality after surgery in CHD children.

Indexed as

Childrencongenital heart disease (CHD)in-hospital mortalitypostoperative periodprediction model

Identifiers

PMID42158657
PMCPMC13181639

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