ArticleClinical epidemiology2026
On the Importance of a Clear Definition of Time Horizon for Time-to-Event Dynamic Predictions: A Systematic Review and a Concrete Illustration in Kidney Transplantation.
Article in Clinical epidemiology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Introduction: Dynamic predictions estimate survival probability until a given horizon, conditionally on being event-free at landmark times and additional information on predictive variables available at these times. The horizon may be defined as a Methods: Following PRISMA, CHARMS, and TRIPOD recommendations, a systematic review of dynamic predictions, querying Medline in May 2025 with no date restriction and including only English articles, assessed heterogeneity in time horizon reporting. Moreover, from 2,523 kidney recipients, prognostic capacities of the Dynamic predictions of Patient and kidney Graft survival have been studied considering either a Results: From 171 articles included in the systematic review, 97 articles (57%) used a Discussion: Our systematic review highlights the need for clearer time horizon reporting due to heterogeneous definitions. Our renal transplantation illustration revealed that the prognostic performances of Dynamic predictions of Patient and kidney Graft survival differ given the time horizon definition. More broadly, this study highlights the need for caution when interpreting prognostic performances, as it depends on whether the horizon window is sliding or reduced.
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