Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42156767›Full record

ArticleNature communications2026

Compounding hazards increase flood economic losses across Europe.

Michele Ronco, Aloïs Tilloy, Christina Corbane, Damien Delforge, Luc Feyen, Wiebke S Jäger, Alessia Matanó, Dominik Paprotny, Andrea Sibilia, Timothy Tiggeloven and 1 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Michele Ronco *European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy. michele.ronco@ec.europa.eu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2160-2452
Aloïs Tilloy *European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5881-0642
Christina CorbaneEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy.
Damien DelforgeInstitute of Health and Society (IRSS), University of Louvain (UCLouvain), Brussels, Belgium.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3552-9444
Luc FeyenEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4225-2962
Wiebke S JägerInstitute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0007-8628-6060
Alessia MatanóInstitute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9735-0589
Dominik PaprotnyResearch Department Transformation Pathways, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5090-8402
Andrea SibiliaUnisystems Luxembourg S.a.r.l. External Service Provider of European Commission Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy.
Timothy TiggelovenInstitute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3029-659X
Philip J WardInstitute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7702-7859

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Compound events-combinations of multiple hazards contributing to societal or environmental risk-can significantly exacerbate disaster impacts, yet their effect on flood-related losses remains poorly quantified. Using a pan-European multi-hazard dataset spanning 1981-2020 at sub-national resolution, we find that more than 70% of recorded flood events involve compounding hazards, including meteorological extremes such as heatwaves and windstorms, alongside anomalous river discharge, with an increasing trend over time. The top 1% of events by economic losses are all compound, with total losses exceeding 167 billion euros above single-hazard floods. We introduce a compound hazard complexity metric and combine it with regional exposure and vulnerability data. Applying an ensemble machine learning model with explainable AI and a Double Machine Learning Causal Forest, we show that regions with higher complexity experience greater losses, even after controlling for flood magnitude and vulnerability, highlighting the importance of compound hazard information in risk modeling.

Identifiers

PMID42156767
PMCPMC13381573

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.