ArticleSurgical endoscopy2026
Nomogram for preoperative prediction of lymph node metastasis in patients with early submucosal right-sided colon cancer: a dual-center retrospective cohort study.
Article in Surgical endoscopy, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundPreoperative lymph node metastasis (LNM) risk stratification is crucial for selecting endoscopic resection or colectomy in T1 right-sided colon cancer (T1 RCC), yet validated tools integrating preoperative predictive indicators remain lacking.
methodsThis retrospective study included 628 patients with T1 RCC. Single-predictor and multi-predictor logistic regression models identified independent preoperative predictors of LNM to construct a nomogram. Model performance was assessed using area under the curve (AUC) and calibration metrics.
resultsSix preoperative factors constituted independent predictors of LNM: age (OR = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.88-0.97), tumor location (hepatic flexure: OR = 3.50, 95% CI: 1.68-7.31), poorly differentiated tumor (OR = 4.21, 95% CI: 2.23-7.94), CT-detected lymphadenopathy (OR = 5.14, 95% CI: 2.79-9.46), elevated CEA (OR = 3.26, 95% CI: 1.77-6.01), and elevated CA 19-9 (OR = 1.98, 95% CI: 1.04-3.77). This predictive model demonstrated high discriminatory ability: 0.84 AUC in training preserved at 0.83 upon validation. Calibration curves demonstrated optimal agreement with observed outcomes, supported by a non-significant Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Decision curve analysis further established robust clinical net benefit across threshold probabilities.
conclusionThis preoperative predictive model accurately quantifies the risk of LNM in T1 RCC using routine parameters, guiding individualized treatment decisions and preventing unnecessary colectomy in low-risk patients.
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