ArticleJCO precision oncology2026
Impact of Multicancer Screening on Late-Stage Cancer at Diagnosis in Breast Cancer Survivors: A Modeling Study.
Article in JCO precision oncology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
purposeBreast cancer survivors are at elevated risk of multiple new primary cancers compared with the general population. The impact of multicancer screening on late-stage cancer diagnosis is under clinical investigation in average-risk individuals, but it is unclear whether findings will generalize to breast cancer survivors.
methodsWe adapted an existing multicancer natural history model for the average-risk US population to reflect increased risks of second primary cancers and all-cause mortality among female breast cancer survivors. We modeled 16 cancer types other than breast cancer and specified a range of natural history parameters and screening test sensitivities to reflect uncertainty in disease onset, progression, and detectability of target cancers. We evaluated annual multicancer screening over a lifetime horizon in simulated hormone receptor-positive (HR-positive) and hormone receptor-negative (HR-negative) cohorts of survivors age 50-74 years and in age-matched women without prior cancer (average-risk women). Outcomes included absolute and relative reductions in late-stage diagnoses compared with no multicancer screening.
resultsAcross a range of natural histories and test sensitivities, multicancer screening was projected to reduce 35-99 late-stage diagnoses per 100,000 person-years (PY; 9%-25% reduction) among HR-positive survivors and 39-111 per 100,000 PY (9%-26% reduction) among HR-negative survivors, compared with 30-84 per 100,000 PY (7%-20% reduction) among average-risk women. Lung cancer contributed most to the reduction in late-stage diagnoses (34%-38%), followed by colorectal cancer (14%-16%) in all populations. Ovarian cancer accounted for greater reduction in HR-negative than HR-positive survivors (10%-11%
conclusionModel-based projections suggest that multicancer screening may reduce late-stage diagnoses among breast cancer survivors more than among average-risk women. This suggests a potential role in long-term surveillance for second primary cancers in this high-risk population.
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