ArticlePNAS nexus2026
No evidence that nonincentivized behavioral interventions effectively mitigate climate change after adjusting for publication bias.
Article in PNAS nexus, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
0 citing papers in PubMed.
No citing paper in PubMed yet.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Behavioral interventions on citizens are often promoted as a low-cost route to induce environmentally friendly behavior, yet published estimates of their effectiveness are highly variable and prone to selective reporting. We reanalyzed the evidence of nonincentivized behavioral interventions on citizens. We applied robust Bayesian meta-analysis (RoBMA), averaging across a full set of publication bias-adjusted models, to the 144 effect estimates (91 studies) compiled by Nisa et al. (2019). After accounting for publication bias and model uncertainty using multilevel RoBMA, the data strongly favor a zero average effect. The posterior probability that the meta-analytic mean equals zero is 0.984, and the Bayes factor comparing a zero mean to a nonzero mean is BF
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.