ArticleAnnals of gastroenterological surgery2026
Nationwide Real-World Modeling of Surgical Outcomes in Elderly Patients: Incorporating Geriatric-Specific Risk Factors Into Prediction of Mortality and Morbidity.
Article in Annals of gastroenterological surgery, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
12 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Aim: As the aging population grows, it is crucial to evaluate the quality of surgical care considering geriatric-specific factors and outcomes. The aim of this study was to develop and validate prediction models for mortality and morbidity in patients aged 65 and older by using a large-scale, nationwide, real-world dataset to enable robust and generalizable modeling and to evaluate the contribution of geriatric-specific risk factors to the model. Methods: Data from the National Clinical Database in 2021, incorporating 22 geriatric-specific variables, was used to develop prediction models for 30-day mortality and major complications using 70% of the dataset (development cohort), with validation on the remaining 30% (validation cohort). Results: A total of 64 868 cases from gastroenterological surgeries were analyzed. In this geriatric cohort, the 30-day mortality rate was 1.8%, and the major complication rate was 11.3%. The prediction models demonstrated strong discrimination and calibration (HL = 0.198 and c-statistics = 0.84 for mortality, HL = 0.0003 and c-statistics = 0.68 for morbidity). The mortality prediction model identified three significant geriatric-specific factors as independent predictors: surrogate consent (odds ratio [OR] 1.91; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.55-2.35), depression (OR 1.68; 95% CI 1.02-2.75), and hospitalization from outside the home (OR 1.24; 95% CI 1.01-1.54), along with age (75-79 years vs. 65-69 years, OR 1.62; 95% CI 1.20-2.19). Conclusions: Incorporating geriatric-specific factors along with age identified clinically relevant predictors of mortality and morbidity, reinforcing the importance of geriatric assessment in elderly surgical patients.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.