ReviewEcology and evolution2026
Conventional Wisdom Revised in Terms of a Diversity-Uncertainty Model for the Effect of Host Genetic Diversity on Mean Epidemic Size and Its Variability.
Review in Ecology and evolution, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Abstract
Developing 'conventional wisdom' that less genetically diverse host populations tend to experience larger epidemics on average, I re-analyse 211 effect sizes from outside of the plant literature to investigate my Diversity-Uncertainty model. By combining unduplicated effect sizes from Ekroth et al. 2019 (67) and Gibson and Nguyen 2020 (155, total 211), I find evidence to suggest that an epidemic's size (via 'parasite success') is influenced by a combination of the genetic diversity of not only host, but also parasite populations. Additionally, I argue that conventional wisdom could be reframed because it only seems to apply to parasites where their host range is narrow (1 species) compared with those with a relatively broader host range (> 1 species). The impact of these results is relevant for predicting the occurrence of particularly large and severe epidemics.
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