ArticleBMC infectious diseases2026
Global burden and forecast of acute viral hepatitis B among women of childbearing age: a systematic analysis of the global burden of disease study 2021.
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundAcute hepatitis B (AHB), an acute manifestation triggered by hepatitis B virus infection, has emerged as a significant international public health concern, particularly endangering women of childbearing age (WCBA) who are prone to persistent infection, adverse pregnancy outcomes, and mother-to-child transmission threats. However, research on acute hepatitis B lags, mainly focusing on chronic cases or clinical treatments. This study aims to quantify its global disease burden from 1990 to 2021 among women of childbearing age and predict epidemiological trends to inform targeted prevention and control strategies.
methodsData of AHB burden from 1990 to 2021were obtained from the GBD 2021 via Global Health Data Exchange (GHDx). Frontier analysis was utilized to find the unrealized health potential. The age-period-cohort model was applied to analyze trends across different age groups, periods, and birth cohorts. The joinpoint regression model was used to identify significant changes in data trends over time. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was utilized for forecasting future epidemiological trajectories.
resultsA decreasing trend in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and disability-adjusted life-years rates (ASDR) was observed among the women of childbearing age worldwide from 1990 to 2021. The disease burden was disproportionately higher in low socio-demographic index (SDI) regions. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model revealed that by 2050, the ASIR and ASPR show similar downward trends, as do the ASMR and ASDR, but the latter decline less steeply than the former.
conclusionsThe global disease burden of AHB in WCBA was declining, which is consistent with the vaccination and perinatal prevention, yet marked geographic disparities persist in low-resource regions. Modeling projections show that continued declines may contribute to progress toward the WHO viral hepatitis elimination goals, but vaccine coverage, safe injection and sufficient prevention of mother-to-child transmission remain essential. CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER: Not applicable.
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