ArticleBMC oral health2026
Muscle weakness, greater fat mass, lower hematocrit levels, and advanced age in a diagnostic prediction model of periodontitis in adults with obesity: a cross-sectional study.
Article in BMC oral health, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundPeriodontitis is a chronic inflammatory disease that shares key biological pathways with obesity, particularly low-grade systemic inflammation and immune dysregulation. This study aimed to develop and internally validate a diagnostic prediction model for periodontitis in adults with obesity using routinely available clinical and laboratory parameters.
methodsThis cross-sectional study included 115 Brazilian adults with obesity (body mass index ≥ 30 kg/m
resultsPeriodontitis was diagnosed in 71.3% of participants (82/115). The final model retained age (adjusted OR = 1.13 per year; 95%CI = 1.08-1.20), fat mass (adjusted OR = 1.04 per kg; 95%CI = 0.99-1.09), hematocrit (adjusted OR = 0.89 per percentage point; 95%CI = 0.76-1.02), and reduced HGS (adjusted OR = 5.22; 95%CI = 1.80-17.30) as independent predictors. Apparent discrimination was excellent (AUC = 0.873; 95%CI = 0.807-0.938), with an optimism-corrected AUC of 0.865. Calibration was acceptable (Hosmer-Lemeshow p = 0.749), and overall accuracy was 80.0%, with sensitivity of 76.8% and specificity of 87.9%. A LASSO sensitivity analysis confirmed predictor robustness. A simplified exploratory screening score and a provisional nomogram were derived to improve interpretability.
conclusionsA parsimonious diagnostic prediction model identified age, fat mass, hematocrit, and HGS as independent predictors of prevalent periodontitis in adults with obesity. The model should be regarded as exploratory and hypothesis-generating. It may inform future risk-stratification strategies in public primary health care settings, but external validation and recalibration are required before clinical implementation.
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