Admission blood pressure percentiles and in-hospital mortality in pediatric heart failure: a multicenter retrospective cohort study.

backgroundPediatric heart failure (PHF) carries a high mortality burden, yet the prognostic value of admission blood pressure (BP) remains poorly defined, and evidence-based thresholds for risk stratification are lacking.

methodsThis retrospective, multicenter cohort study included 2545 children diagnosed with PHF upon admission across 30 Chinese centers (2013-2022). BP was standardized into age-, sex-, and height-specific percentiles. Associations with in-hospital mortality were analyzed using restricted cubic splines (RCS), machine learning covariate selection, and sensitivity analyses, stratified by sex, age, and etiology.

resultsSystolic BP (SBP) percentiles showed a U-shaped association with mortality, with the lowest risk at the 63.8th percentile. Risk increased below the 57th percentile [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 1.86, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.07-3.26] and above the 91st percentile (aHR = 1.69, 95% CI = 0.85-3.33), a relationship primarily driven by infants/toddlers. Diastolic BP (DBP) percentiles showed a linear inverse association, with risk increasing below the 83rd percentile (aHR = 1.65, 95% CI = 1.09-2.50). Sex-stratified analyses suggested that girls were more vulnerable to high SBP (≥ 91st: aHR = 3.84, 95% CI = 1.31-11.20), whereas boys were more susceptible to low DBP (< 83rd: aHR = 2.21, 95% CI = 1.16-4.20). Etiology-stratified analyses confirmed consistency across major diagnostic categories (P values for all interactions > 0.05).

conclusionThis study establishes novel BP percentile thresholds for mortality risk stratification in patients with PHF (SBP: 57th-91st; DBP: 83rd-100th) and provides preliminary evidences for sex- and age-differential hemodynamic management, although validation is required.