The prognostic value of systemic inflammatory indices in elderly patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage.

backgroundVery old patients represent the fastest-growing age subgroup among patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), which justifies studying age-specific prognostic behavior in this population. While systemic inflammatory indices are increasingly recognized for their prognostic potential in various conditions, their specific value in this rapidly expanding geriatric cohort remains unclear. This study aimed to evaluate whether specific indices, particularly the Monocyte-to-Albumin Ratio (MAR) and Systemic Inflammatory Response Index (SIRI), provide independent prognostic information for case-fatality in this population. METHODS AND

findingsWe conducted a retrospective observational cohort study of patients aged ≥65 years with spontaneous ICH admitted to a single tertiary emergency department between 2020 and 2025. Of 326 patients initially screened, 118 consecutive patients met inclusion criteria and constituted the cohort. Inflammatory indices were calculated from admission blood tests. Admission non-contrast cranial computed tomography scans were utilized to measure initial hematoma volume using the validated ABC/2 and ABC/2-derived compartmental methods. The primary outcome was 30-day all-cause case-fatality; secondary outcomes included 48-hour and 90-day case-fatality. Multivariable logistic and Cox regression models were adjusted for age, sex, hemorrhage type, and treatment type. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed to assess predictive performance. Both MAR and SIRI were significantly higher in the deceased patient group at 30 days (p = 0.049 and p = 0.029, respectively). ROC analysis showed modest predictive value for 30-day case-fatality (MAR AUC = 0.606; SIRI AUC = 0.617). In multivariable analysis, MAR > 0.018 was independently associated with increased odds of 30-day (OR=3.57, 95% CI: 1.44-8.85) and 90-day case-fatality (OR=3.18, 95% CI: 1.28-7.92), while SIRI was not significant. Cox regression confirmed that patients with MAR ≤ 0.018 had a significantly lower 90-day case-fatality risk (HR = 0.44, 95% CI: 0.26-0.74). Multiple linear regression analysis identified MAR as the sole significant independent predictor of initial hematoma volume (p = 0.037), whereas other indices showed no such association. Furthermore, logistic regression confirmed that each one-unit (1 mL) increase in hemorrhage volume significantly elevated the odds of case-fatality by 9.8% (OR=1.098,95%CI:1.058-1.140,p < 0.001). Study limitations include its retrospective single-center design, and sample size constraints that limited multivariable modeling.

conclusionsIn elderly patients with spontaneous ICH, admission MAR is independently associated with short- and medium-term case-fatality, whereas SIRI offers limited additional prognostic value. MAR may serve as a useful adjunctive marker for risk stratification, but its data-driven cut-offs and modest discrimination necessitate external validation and prospective assessment before clinical adoption.