Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42135444›Full record

ArticleNature human behaviour2026

The political polarization of health outcomes in the USA.

Elizabeth Elder, Neil A O'Brian

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature human behaviour, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors.

Elizabeth ElderHoover Institution, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9741-5012
Neil A O'BrianDepartment of Political Science, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA. nobrian@unc.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2196-0011

Funding

Wave IV Data CollectionP01HD031921 · NICHD · UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL · PI HARRIS, KATHLEEN MULLAN · 1994 to 2020
$86.1M
National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health): Wave VII Core ProjectU01AG071448 · NIA · UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL · PI Allison E Aiello, Lauren M Gaydosh · 2021 to 2026
$40.2M
National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health): Wave VI Cognition and Early Risk Factors for Dementia ProjectU01AG071450 · NIA · UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL · PI AIELLO, ALLISON E, HUMMER, ROBERT A · 2021 to 2025
$16.2M
NIA NIH HHS U01 AG071448NIA NIH HHS U01 AG071450NICHD NIH HHS P01 HD031921
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Public health disparities provide an important lens for understanding social and political change in the USA. Using individual-level medical data and death records, this study shows that conservative Americans experienced worsening health and higher mortality than liberals during the 2010s. Here we find evidence consistent with two potential mechanisms. First, demographic realignment within political coalitions brought less healthy individuals into the conservative camp. Yet by the 2020s, demographic change, public policy and COVID-19 do not fully account for the widening gap in mortality rates. Public opinion data are consistent with a second mechanism: declining trust in medical professionals among right-leaning individuals, including lower willingness to seek care, follow clinical advice or believe in medication effectiveness, even for issues unrelated to COVID-19. These patterns suggest that growing ideological divides in health behaviours are leaving conservative Americans increasingly vulnerable to preventable health risks.

Indexed as

COVID-19Health Status DisparitiesMortalityPoliticsFemaleHealth BehaviorHumansMalePublic HealthPublic OpinionUnited States

Identifiers

PMID42135444
PMCPMC13388103

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.