Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42129652›Full record

Observational studyBMC gastroenterology2026

A prospective cohort-based prediction model incorporating acute gastrointestinal injury for 28-day and 90-day outcomes in acute decompensation of cirrhosis.

Jia Lian, Hao Cui, Baiguo Xu, Qing Ye, Lei Liu, Fang Liu, Lixia Sun, Ying Luo, Li Sun, Yue Huang and 2 more

Abstract readObservational Study
In one paragraph

Observational study in BMC gastroenterology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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0citing papers in PubMed
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1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

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2 · The registry

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3 · Its place in the literature

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4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors.

Jia Lian *Department of Gastroenterology, Central Hospital, Tianjin University/Tianjin Third Central Hospital, 83 Jintang Road, Hedong District, Tianjin, 300170, China.
Hao Cui *Department of Gastroenterology, Central Hospital, Tianjin University/Tianjin Third Central Hospital, 83 Jintang Road, Hedong District, Tianjin, 300170, China.
Baiguo Xu *Department of Gastroenterology, Central Hospital, Tianjin University/Tianjin Third Central Hospital, 83 Jintang Road, Hedong District, Tianjin, 300170, China.
Qing YeDepartment of Gastroenterology, Central Hospital, Tianjin University/Tianjin Third Central Hospital, 83 Jintang Road, Hedong District, Tianjin, 300170, China.
Lei LiuDepartment of Gastroenterology, Central Hospital, Tianjin University/Tianjin Third Central Hospital, 83 Jintang Road, Hedong District, Tianjin, 300170, China.
Fang LiuDepartment of Gastroenterology, Central Hospital, Tianjin University/Tianjin Third Central Hospital, 83 Jintang Road, Hedong District, Tianjin, 300170, China.
Lixia SunDepartment of Gastroenterology, Central Hospital, Tianjin University/Tianjin Third Central Hospital, 83 Jintang Road, Hedong District, Tianjin, 300170, China.
Ying LuoTianjin Key Laboratory of Extracorporeal Life Support for Critical Diseases, Tianjin Institute of Hepatobiliary Disease, Central Hospital, Tianjin University/Tianjin Third Central Hospital, Tianjin, China.
Li SunSchool of Nursing, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China.
Yue HuangDepartment of Hepatology and Gastroenterology, Tianjin Union Medical Center, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nankai University, 190 Jieyuan Road, Hongqiao District, Tianjin, 300121, China.
Tongyuan XueDepartment of Endoscopy Diagnosis and Therapy, Tianjin's Clinical Research Center for Cancer, Tianjin Key Laboratory of Digestive Cancer, State Key Laboratory of Druggability Evaluation and Systematic Translational Medicine, Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute and Hospital, National Clinical Research Center for Cancer, Huanhuxi Road, Hexi District, Tianjin, 300060, China.
Tao HanDepartment of Hepatology and Gastroenterology, Tianjin Union Medical Center, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nankai University, 190 Jieyuan Road, Hongqiao District, Tianjin, 300121, China. hantaomd@126.com.

Funding

Beijing iGandan Foundation iGandanF-1082022RGG045Introduction of Talent and Doctoral Start-up Fund Project B2210Natural Science Foundation of Tianjin Municipal Science and Technology Commission 21JCYBJC01810Tianjin Key Medical Discipline (Specialty) Construction Project TJYXZDXK-009ATianjin Key Medical Discipline (Specialty) Construction Project TJYXZDXK-034A
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND

aimsThis prospective, observational study evaluated the role of acute gastrointestinal injury (AGI) in the 28-day and 90-day prognosis of cirrhotic patients with acute decompensation (AD).

methodsThe baseline clinical characteristics of AD patients (N = 231) were recorded, and gastrointestinal function (GIF) was assessed. The patients were divided into three AGI groups based on their AGI grade (according to the European Society of Intensive Care Medicine guidelines), and they were followed for 90 days or until either death or liver transplantation.

resultsDuring the 90-day follow-up period, 63 patients (22.27%) died and 2 (0.87%) underwent liver transplantation. Cox regression analyses identified endotoxin, creatinine, international normalized ratio (INR), infection status, and the occurrence of AGI as independent predictors of 28-day and 90-day death or transplantation. These five predictors were entered into the final Cox regression model to construct predictive models for 28-day (AGIM28) and 90-day (AGIM90) outcomes. Corresponding nomograms were subsequently developed. Of six prognostic models, the AGIM models had the highest prediction efficiency. In the Kaplan-Meier survival curve analysis, the 90-day cumulative survival rate of the three AGI groups (no-AGI, AGI 1, and AGI 2) decreased gradually (P < 0.001). Multivariate logistic analysis showed that d-lactate, bilirubin, INR, and bowel sounds were independent predictors of AGI progression.

conclusionOur novel prediction models, the AGIM28 and AGIM90, can effectively predict the 28-day and 90-day death or transplantation risk of cirrhotic patients with AD. The presence of AGI plays an undeniable role in the poor prognosis of AD patients.

Indexed as

Gastrointestinal DiseasesLiver CirrhosisAcute DiseaseAgedFemaleHumansInternational Normalized RatioKaplan-Meier EstimateLiver TransplantationMaleMiddle AgedPrognosisProportional Hazards ModelsProspective StudiesAcute decompensationAcute gastrointestinal injuryCirrhosisProgression

Identifiers

PMID42129652
PMCPMC13339327

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.