Determination of critical thresholds for sensitive indicators in coal and gas outburst prediction for deep complex coal seams: methodology and application.

Coal and gas outburst represents a highly destructive dynamic phenomenon inherent in deep coal mining operations. Currently, outburst prediction frameworks rely heavily on a uniform critical threshold system recommended by national regulations. However, within heterogeneous coal seams characterized by complex geological conditions, this universal approach frequently leads to "low-index outburst" incidents or excessive engineering redundancy, significantly undermining the intrinsic safety of mine operations. To address this core scientific bottleneck, the present study establishes a theoretical methodology for the quantitative determination of sensitive prediction indicators and proposes a hierarchical optimization framework for both regional and local critical thresholds. By integrating long-term historical statistics, laboratory kinetic tests of gas desorption, and in-situ multi-point tracking and verification, the critical thresholds undergo scientific calibration and site-specific alignment. Empirical research conducted on the No. 1 coal seam of the Miluo Coal Mine in Guizhou demonstrates that, at the regional prediction level, gas content and gas pressure exhibit equivalent sensitivity, with established critical values of 8.0 m