ArticleScientific reports2026
Investigation of low enthalpy geothermal resources in the transitional geological environment: a pathway to Nigeria's Sustainable Development Goals achievement.
Article in Scientific reports, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Nigeria faces a significant energy deficit (61.2% electricity access), hindering progress toward SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) and SDG 13 (Climate Action). Despite geothermal potential, comprehensive assessments of low-enthalpy resources (that is, subsurface temperatures below 100 ℃) in transitional geological environments (TGEs) - basement-sedimentary contact zones with mixed conductive-advective heat transfer - remain underexplored. This study uses high-resolution aeromagnetic data interpretation with statistical modeling to delineate geothermal potential within the Egbako-Share axis of North-Central, Nigeria. Spectral analysis adopting centroid depth technique from 40 overlapping blocks was employed to estimate Curie Point Depths (CPD), geothermal gradients (GTG), and heat flow (HF). Statistical modeling - including correlation analysis, multiple regression, PCA, and spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I, Getis-Ord Gi*) - provided a robust framework for resource assessment and risk evaluation. The analysis revealed significant geothermal resources with CPD ranging from 26 to 46 km (mean: 38 ± 6 km), GTG of 13-23 °C/km (mean: 16 ± 2 °C/km), and HF values of 31-57 mW/m² (mean: 39 ± 6 mW/m²). Strong negative correlations between CPD and both GTG (r = -0.892, p < 0.001) and HF (r = -0.891, p < 0.001) were established, with the regression model explaining 79.5% of HF variance. PCA identified 12 high-potential geothermal zones for low-enthalpy development. Under a conceptual scenario assuming full development of all 12 zones, modelled capacity could range from approximately 15 to 25 MW, with scenario-based annual CO
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