ArticleLancet regional health. Americas2026
Impact of switching from a quadrivalent to a nonavalent HPV vaccine on HPV infections and cervical cancer in Colombia: a mathematical modelling study.
Article in Lancet regional health. Americas, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
0 citing papers in PubMed.
No citing paper in PubMed yet.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Background: In 2022, Colombia reported 13.7 cases of cervical cancer per 100,000 females. Given the persistently low coverage of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination among girls (51%), alternative interventions are being considered. We assessed the population-level impact of switching from a quadrivalent to a nonavalent vaccine, as well as increasing vaccination coverage to the World Health Organization's target of 90% (≥1 dose). Methods: We developed a dynamic model of carcinogenic HPV transmission and vaccination in the population of Colombia aged 15+ years, stratified by health state, sex, age, sexual activity, and HPV vaccination status, accounting for latency. The model was calibrated to HPV prevalence data from Colombia and all Latin America. We evaluated gender-neutral and girl-only routine one-dose vaccination (<15 years) under current Colombian coverage levels and 90% coverage. We estimated age-standardised HPV prevalence, and the relative reduction in HPV prevalence and cervical cancer incidence over 2013-2100. Findings: Both vaccines reduced age-standardised HPV prevalence, with greater reductions observed at 90% coverage, under a gender-neutral scenario, and with a nonavalent vaccine. Switching to a nonavalent vaccine at current levels could reduce HPV prevalence by 39% (range: 33%-46%) in females by 2100, compared to 8% (range: 1%-17%) when only increasing quadrivalent vaccine coverage to 90% in a gender-neutral vaccination strategy. Only a nonavalent vaccine strategy reduced projected age-standardised cervical cancer incidence rates to below 4 cases per 100,000 females as early as 2058. Interpretation: Switching to a nonavalent vaccine will accelerate the reduction of HPV infections, thereby expediting progress toward cervical cancer elimination. Funding: Fonds de recherche du Québec-Santé and the Division of Cancer Epidemiology at McGill University.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.