Assessing the Sustainable Production Potential of Camel Herds in Southern Tunisia.

Camel breeding plays an important role in sustaining pastoral systems in the arid and desert regions of Southern Tunisia, yet the sector remains marginal and insufficiently documented. This study aimed to assess the sustainably production potential of the Tunisian camel herd and to project future meat and milk production. Given the limited availability of detailed statistical data, a demographic simulation model adapted to Tunisian conditions was used to analyze herd dynamics under equilibrium scenarios. Sustainable offtake rates were estimated, and sensitivity analyses were conducted to evaluate the influence of fertility and mortality on productivity. The results indicate that an average annual offtake rate of about 19.1 percent of the herd can be achieved without compromising demographic stability. Productivity gains were primarily driven by improvements in reproductive performance, while further reductions in mortality had a limited effect. Projections for the period 2022 to 2030 show moderate but consistent increases in herd size as well as meat and milk production. These findings suggest that sustainable development of camel production in arid environments relies on adaptive management strategies focused on reproduction, mobility, and market integration rather than conventional intensification.