Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42120410›Full record

ArticleNature communications2026

Critical evaluation of drug response prediction models with DrEval.

Judith Bernett, Pascal Iversen, Mario Picciani, Mathias Wilhelm, Katharina Baum, Markus List

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
7citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

7 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Judith Bernett *Data Science in Systems Biology, Technical University of Munich, Freising, Germany.ORCID 0000-0001-5812-8013
Pascal Iversen *Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany.ORCID 0009-0000-7362-6715
Mario PiccianiComputational Mass Spectrometry, Technical University of Munich, Freising, Germany.ORCID 0000-0003-0428-1703
Mathias WilhelmComputational Mass Spectrometry, Technical University of Munich, Freising, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-9224-3258
Katharina BaumDepartment of Mathematics and Computer Science, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany.ORCID 0000-0001-7256-0566
Markus ListData Science in Systems Biology, Technical University of Munich, Freising, Germany. markus.list@tum.de.ORCID 0000-0002-0941-4168

Funding

Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (Federal Ministry of Education and Research) 031L0305A (DROP2AI)
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Large-scale drug sensitivity screens have enabled training drug response prediction models based on cancer cell line omics profiles to advance personalized medicine. While model performances reported in the literature appear promising, successful translation to the clinic remains limited. In this work, we discuss key obstacles that lead to overly optimistic performance estimates of state-of-the-art models, making it challenging to track progress in the field. To address them, we present DrEval, a pipeline for unbiased, biologically meaningful evaluation of cancer drug response models. DrEval is designed as a living open-source benchmark that integrates baseline and literature models with standardized hyperparameter tuning, statistically rigorous evaluation, cross-study benchmarks, and supports ablation studies and publication-ready visualizations. Using DrEval, we show that deep learning models barely outperform a naive model that predicts only the mean drug and cell line effects, while no complex model outperforms properly tuned tree-based ensemble baselines in relevant settings.

Indexed as

Antineoplastic AgentsComputational BiologyNeoplasmsCell Line, TumorDeep LearningHumansPrecision MedicinePrediction AlgorithmsPredictive Learning ModelsAntineoplastic Agents

Identifiers

PMID42120410
PMCPMC13168506

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.