Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42115999›Full record

ArticleBMC public health2026

Alcohol- and Drug-Induced Mortality Trends By Sex and Race Among U.S. Decedents with Liver disease (1999-2043).

Anwar Zahran, Islam Rajab, Mohammed AbuBaha, Marwan Joma, Hossam Salameh, Mohammad Bdair, Raya Fuqha, Ahmad Mohammad, Sarah Potiguara, Mohamed Elnaggar and 2 more

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Article in BMC public health, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

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1citing papers in PubMed
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1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

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3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

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4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors.

Anwar ZahranDepartment of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, An- Najah National University, P.O. Box 7, Nablus, Palestine. anwarkzahran@gmail.com.
Islam RajabInternal Medicine Department, St. Joseph's University Medical Center, 703 Main St, Paterson, NJ, 07503, USA.
Mohammed AbuBahaDepartment of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, An- Najah National University, P.O. Box 7, Nablus, Palestine.
Marwan JomaDepartment of Medicine, University of Toledo, Toledo, OH, USA.
Hossam SalamehDepartment of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, An- Najah National University, P.O. Box 7, Nablus, Palestine.
Mohammad BdairDepartment of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, An- Najah National University, P.O. Box 7, Nablus, Palestine.
Raya FuqhaDepartment of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, An- Najah National University, P.O. Box 7, Nablus, Palestine.
Ahmad MohammadHurley Medical Center-MSU, Flint, MI, 48503, USA.
Sarah PotiguaraInternal Medicine, St. Joseph's University Medical Center, Paterson, NJ, USA.
Mohamed ElnaggarHartford HealthCare Corporation, Hartford, CT, USA.
Mustafa HabibBeth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, MA, USA.
Walid BaddouraGastroenterology & Hepatology, St. Joseph's University Medical Center, Paterson, NJ, USA.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundLiver disease-associated mortality in the United States has been rising, and substance-related deaths are an increasing part of this burden. We evaluated long-term national trends in alcohol- and drug-induced mortality among decedents with liver disease and assessed differences by sex and race, with projections through 2043.

methodsWe performed a retrospective, population-based analysis of U.S. death certificate data from CDC WONDER (1999-2023). Liver disease was identified when ICD-10 codes K70-K76 appeared as a multiple cause of death; rates were summarized as crude and age-adjusted mortality rates standardized to the 2000 U.S. population, stratified by sex and race (Black/African American vs. White) and by etiology group (alcohol-induced, drug-induced, other causes). Temporal changes were assessed using joinpoint regression, and time-series forecasting was used to project age-adjusted rates through 2043.

resultsFrom 1999 to 2023, there were 2,255,627 liver disease-associated deaths, including 483,457 alcohol-induced, 29,742 drug-induced, and 1,742,428 from other causes. Age-adjusted mortality increased across all categories over the study period (drug-induced 0.354→0.605 per 100,000; alcohol-induced 5.972→9.678; other causes 25.478→28.193). Joinpoint analyses showed shared inflection points in 2018 and 2021, with the steepest increases from 2018 to 2021 (APC + 14.07% drug-induced, + 12.88% alcohol-induced, + 7.38% other causes), followed by post-2021 declines in alcohol-induced and other-cause mortality. Mortality remained higher in men, but alcohol-induced mortality rose faster in women overall (AAPC 3.19% vs. 1.48% in men). By race, alcohol-induced mortality increased steadily among White individuals (AAPC 2.55), while Black/African American individuals showed sharper swings, including a marked rise from 2018 to 2021 (APC + 15.44%) followed by a pronounced decline. Forecasting suggested continued growth through 2043, reaching approximately 0.85 (drug-induced), 12.5 (alcohol-induced), and 32.5 (other causes) deaths per 100,000.

conclusionsLiver disease-associated mortality increased from 1999 to 2023 across alcohol-induced, drug-induced, and other causes, with synchronized shifts around 2018 and 2021 and persistent disparities by sex and race. Projections indicate that mortality will likely continue to rise through 2043, supporting the need for integrated liver disease and substance-use prevention strategies with targeted efforts for high-risk subgroups.

Indexed as

Liver DiseasesSubstance-Related DisordersAdultAgedBlack or African AmericanCause of DeathFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedRetrospective StudiesUnited StatesWhiteAlcohol-induced mortalityDrug-induced mortalityJoinpoint regressionLiver diseaseMortality forecasting

Identifiers

PMID42115999
PMCPMC13335219

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.