Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42115598›Full record

ArticleNature communications2026

SAASI: Sampling Aware Ancestral State Inference.

Yexuan Song, Ivan Gill, Ailene MacPherson, Caroline Colijn

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Genomic epidemiology ofMicrobial genomics · 2026
    Article
  3. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Yexuan SongDepartment of Mathematics, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada. yexuan_song@sfu.ca.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0004-8316-4293
Ivan GillDepartment of Health Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada.
Ailene MacPhersonDepartment of Mathematics, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada.
Caroline ColijnDepartment of Mathematics, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6097-6708

Funding

Canadian Network for Research and Innovation in Machining Technology, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC Canadian Network for Research and Innovation in Machining Technology) CANMOD, the Canadian Network for Modelling Infectious Disease, 560516-2020Canadian Network for Research and Innovation in Machining Technology, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC Canadian Network for Research and Innovation in Machining Technology) CRC-2021-00276Canadian Network for Research and Innovation in Machining Technology, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC Canadian Network for Research and Innovation in Machining Technology) RGPIN-2019-06624Canadian Network for Research and Innovation in Machining Technology, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC Canadian Network for Research and Innovation in Machining Technology) RGPIN-2022-03113Public Health Agency of Canada (Agence de la Santé Publique du Canada) 2223-HQ-000265
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

In phylogeography, ancestral state inference methods are used to identify the geographic or host species origin of viral or bacterial lineages and reconstruct their transmission histories over time. However, differences in sampling among states can bias these inference methods. Here, we introduce sampling-aware ancestral state inference (SAASI), a method that accounts for sampling differences. We apply SAASI to the multi-host spread of the H5N1 virus in the United States in 2024 and find that the key transmission event from wild birds to cattle is estimated to occur later under lower sampling in wild birds (compared to other species) than when sampling is not accounted for. Using simulation, we find that SAASI infers past viral locations/host species considerably more accurately than standard methods when sampling bias exists, is computationally feasible for large datasets, and scales to trees with 100,000 tips.

Indexed as

Influenza A Virus, H5N1 SubtypeInfluenza in BirdsAnimalsAnimals, WildBirdsCattleComputer SimulationPhylogenyPhylogeographyUnited States

Identifiers

PMID42115598
PMCPMC13376925

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.