ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2026
2024 global temperature record is consistent with model-predicted warming.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
- 2024 global temperature record is consistent with model-predicted warming.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
We employ a semiempirical approach combining climate model simulations and observational temperatures to assess the likelihood of recent global temperature records. Monte Carlo simulations are used to generate global temperature series consistent with combined estimates of forced (anthropogenic + natural) and internal variability derived from observations and CMIP6 multimodel simulations. We find that the El Niño-boosted 2024 global temperature record had a ~12% likelihood of occurrence (a one-in-eight-year event), similar to the prior (also El Niño-boosted) record year 2016 (~14% likelihood). Of the records set during the past three decades, only 1998 is found to have been truly anomalous, with a ~2.5% likelihood of occurrence. Each of these records is found to have been nearly impossible in the absence of human-caused warming.
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