ArticleeLife2026
Regime shift detection and neurocomputational substrates for under and overreactions to change.
Article in eLife, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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3 authors.
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Abstract
The world constantly changes, with the underlying state of the world shifting from one regime to another. The ability to detect a regime shift, such as the onset of a pandemic or the end of a recession, significantly impacts individual decisions, as well as governmental policies. However, determining whether a regime has changed is usually not obvious, as signals are noisy and reflective of the volatility of the environment. We designed an fMRI paradigm that examines a stylized regime-shift detection task. Human participants showed systematic overreaction and underreaction: Overreaction was most commonly seen when signals were noisy, but when environments were stable and change is possible but unlikely. By contrast, underreaction was observed when signals were precise but when environments were unstable and hence change was more likely. These behavioral signatures are consistent with the
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