Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42109045›Full record

ArticleJournal of the National Cancer Institute2026

Predicting median survival times from early data in immunotherapy trials using exponential-decay modeling.

Tarquin Opperman, Ram Patel, John Dean Chiong, David J Stewart, Abdullah Nasser

Abstract read
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In one paragraph

Article in Journal of the National Cancer Institute, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Tarquin OppermanSchulich School of Medicine and Dentistry, Western University, London, ON, Canada.ORCID 0009-0007-7827-4895
Ram PatelSchulich School of Medicine and Dentistry, Western University, London, ON, Canada.
John Dean ChiongSchulich School of Medicine and Dentistry, Western University, London, ON, Canada.
David J StewartDepartment of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada.ORCID 0000-0002-0184-7946
Abdullah NasserSchulich School of Medicine and Dentistry, Western University, London, ON, Canada.ORCID 0000-0002-1302-2861

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

In oncology trials, overall survival and progression-free survival (PFS) are typically summarized with Kaplan-Meier curves, but medians cannot be estimated when follow-up is early. We evaluated whether exponential-decay regression applied to the earliest quartile of Kaplan-Meier data could approximate mature medians. A total of 114 phase III immunotherapy trials encompassing 420 treatment arms were analyzed, yielding 618 evaluable survival curves across overall survival and PFS endpoints. For immunotherapy overall survival, predicted and reported medians showed no significant difference (P = .59; R2 = 0.76; concordance correlation coefficient = 0.87). For immunotherapy PFS, predictions modestly overestimated medians (P < .001; R2 = 0.50). Nonimmunotherapy arms demonstrated overestimation for both overall survival (R2 = 0.61) and PFS (R2 = 0.68). Pooled overall survival performance was good (R2 = 0.70). Early exponential modeling may offer a transparent tool for interim overall survival estimation in immunotherapy trials, warranting prospective validation.

Indexed as

ImmunotherapyModels, StatisticalNeoplasmsClinical Trials, Phase III as TopicHumansKaplan-Meier EstimateProgression-Free Survival

Identifiers

PMID42109045

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.