Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42106662›Full record

ArticleBMC infectious diseases2026

Spatiotemporal patterns and forecasted trends of dengue in Saudi Arabia: a national surveillance study, 2012-2024.

Awadh Alanazi, Shandana Riaz, Hasan Ejaz, Intisar Alruwaili, Maha Munir, Mashael W Alruways, Lienda Bashier Eltayeb, Bi Bi Zainab Mazhari, Muhammad Umer Khan

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Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

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Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Awadh AlanaziDepartment of Clinical Laboratory Sciences, College of Applied Medical Sciences, Jouf University, Sakaka, 72388, Saudi Arabia. aaanazi@ju.edu.sa.
Shandana RiazInstitute of Molecular Biology and Biotechnology, The University of Lahore, Lahore, Pakistan.
Hasan EjazDepartment of Clinical Laboratory Sciences, College of Applied Medical Sciences, Jouf University, Sakaka, 72388, Saudi Arabia.
Intisar AlruwailiDepartment of Clinical Laboratory Sciences, College of Applied Medical Sciences, Jouf University, Sakaka, 72388, Saudi Arabia.
Maha MunirUniversity of Catanzaro, Magna Graecia, Italy.
Mashael W AlruwaysDepartment of Medical Laboratories, College of Applied Medical Sciences, Shaqra University, Shaqra, Saudi Arabia.
Lienda Bashier EltayebDepartment of Medical Laboratory Sciences, College of Applied Medical Sciences, Prince Sattam Bin AbdulAziz University- Al-Kharj, Riyadh, 11942, Saudi Arabia.
Bi Bi Zainab MazhariDepartment of Clinical Laboratory Sciences, College of Applied Medical Sciences, Jouf University, Qurayyat, 75911, Saudi Arabia.
Muhammad Umer KhanInstitute of Molecular Biology and Biotechnology, The University of Lahore, Lahore, Pakistan. muhammad.umer4@mlt.uol.edu.pk.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Dengue fever remains a significant public health issue in Saudi Arabia, with the majority of the infections occurring in the western urban centers. This study investigates the long-term trends from 2012 to 2024. Using the surveillance data from the Saudi Ministry of Health, the authors employed descriptive statistics, segmented log-linear regression, a spatial analysis across 20 health regions, Seasonal Trend Decomposition by Loess (STL) decomposition, and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models to forecast up to 2030. From 2012 to 2024, the total reported infections were 63,312. Dengue fever incidence increased from 5.99 to 17.01 per 100,000 population, with considerable annual variation and a peak in 2023. Dengue fever infections were concentrated in the western coastal regions, among males, non-Saudi nationals, and those aged 15 to below 45 years. Between March and May, a regular seasonal peak took place. Forecasts indicate that seasonal variation will persist through 2030 within previously noted ranges. Saudi Arabia's dengue epidemiology is marked by episodic amplification rather than structural transformation, steady seasonality, and ongoing regional concentration.

Indexed as

DengueAdolescentAdultChildChild, PreschoolEpidemiological MonitoringFemaleForecastingHumansIncidenceInfantMaleMiddle AgedSaudi ArabiaSeasonsSpatio-Temporal AnalysisDengueEpidemiologySaudi ArabiaSeasonal trendsSegmented regressionSpatial heterogeneitySurveillance

Identifiers

PMID42106662
PMCPMC13335132

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.