Impact of Vietnam-era G.I. Bill eligibility on the distribution of later-life memory score levels and decline: evidence from the Vietnam draft lottery natural experiment.

We estimated the distributional impact of Vietnam-era G.I. Bill eligibility, a federal policy that subsidized education, impacting approximately 6 million veterans, on later-life memory levels and rate of age-related decline. We used Health and Retirement Study data (1998-2018) for men born 1947-1953 with at least one outcome assessment (n = 2337;15 433 person-waves). We proxied Bill eligibility using draft eligibility based on birthdate and self-reported veteran status. We used an algorithmic measure of memory as the outcome. We fit intention-to-treat and instrumental variables models at the mean and different outcome quantiles. We assessed effect modification using a childhood socioeconomic status index and self-reported race and ethnicity. Although imprecise, results are consistent with eligibility increasing memory levels but accelerating age-related decline, especially at lower quantiles. The magnitude of estimated effects were especially pronounced for men from low childhood socioeconomic backgrounds and Black men. For White men, eligibility was associated with uniformly accelerated decline across the distribution. Overall, our results paint a complex picture: eligibility may have improved overall memory score levels but also may have slightly increased the rate of age-related decline, especially among those with worse memory function. Further research is necessary to investigate the mechanisms by which such policies impact later-life memory.