ArticleEcology and evolution2026
Will It Survive? Evaluating the Effects of Damage and Silviculture on Tree Seedling Survival Using Multi-State Models.
Article in Ecology and evolution, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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4 authors.
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Abstract
Plantations are the spearhead of adaptive silviculture, as planting stock can be selected to increase the resistance and resilience to climate-related stressors and to accelerate the transition toward future conditions. Yet, plantations require high investments for an uncertain future outcome. Especially, we do not have a global understanding of how damage from abiotic and biotic agents relates to seedlings' survival, and how 'damage history' can be modulated by silvicultural treatments. Here, we aimed at establishing the effects of timing and frequency of damage (i.e., loss of photosynthetic tissue, mechanical damage, herbivore damage, or presence of pathogens) on the survival of planted trees, using 6 years of surveys in an assisted migration experiment. Seedlings of eight species were categorized as 'Healthy', 'Damaged', or 'Dead' each fall. We analyzed transitions among categories using multi-state models, a technique typical of the medical field that can be used to study disease progression. Survival and recovery of damaged seedlings declined with earlier and more frequent damage for all species, with the exception of
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