ArticleEvidance health sciences2026
National Burden of Breast Cancer in Saudi Arabia, 1990-2023, With Forecasts to 2050: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023.
Article in Evidance health sciences, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
0 citing papers in PubMed.
No citing paper in PubMed yet.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
13 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Introduction: Breast cancer represents the most common malignancy among Saudi Arabian women; however, structured population-level burden assessments integrating advanced epidemiological methods remain limited. We quantified the growing burden of breast cancer in Saudi Arabia from 1990 to 2023 and projected trends to 2050. Methods: Using Global Burden of Disease 2023 estimates, we analyzed incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) through joinpoint regression, age-period-cohort modeling, and Das Gupta decomposition. Forecasts utilized Bayesian model averaging across four statistical models. Healthcare system performance was assessed via mortality-to-incidence ratio trajectories against socio-demographic index benchmarks. Results: Incident cases increased from 454 (95% Uncertainty Interval [UI]: 322-630) in 1990 to 4,168 (3,009-5,990) in 2023, representing an 818% increase. Age-standardized incidence rose from 6.47 to 19.58 per 100,000 (+203%). Deaths increased from 243 to 1,197 (+393%), while DALYs rose from 8,524 to 43,561 (+410%). The mortality-to-incidence ratio improved from 0.535 to 0.362 (-32%), indicating enhanced survival. Age effects explained 77.7% of variance in incidence patterns, with period effects contributing 20.6%. Decomposition attributed 44% of the incidence increase to population growth, 48% to epidemiological change, and 7% to aging. Performance frontier analysis identified 659 preventable deaths annually (57% of total) if Saudi Arabia achieved benchmark efficiency. Ensemble forecasts project stabilization at 19.3 per 100,000 by 2050. Conclusions: The breast cancer burden in Saudi Arabia has increased significantly, driven primarily by true epidemiological change and population growth. Despite improving survival, significant preventable mortality persists, necessitating enhanced screening and treatment optimization.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.